Crypto conviction is one of 22 market stories StoryVector measures. 176 US ETFs carry it, with $141 billion between them; the largest holder, IBIT, holds 49.5% of its capital. This week it ranks tied 4th of 22 for attention, in the WARM band. Over the past year its ETFs returned −29.5%, against +16.8% for broad US ETFs, to October 2, 2026; past performance, not a recommendation.
Its level among all 22 on the fixed 25 to 60 scale. The band is where the level sits this week, not a direction.
Its ETFs ranked among the narratives, lowest to highest. The white notch is this one; the thin tick is where broad US ETFs would sit. Measured and past, not a forecast.
What the story is about, where its attention comes from, what sets it off, and what it shares ETFs with.
Crypto ETFs hold coins that pay no interest and that no government issues. What do holders think they own?
Crypto, bitcoin above all, is a new kind of money, a way to hold wealth outside any government.
Crypto is a high-risk growth asset, bought and sold along with the rest of the speculative market.
What would separate them. What it is held against. Held as money, it is weighed against gold and the dollar. Held as risk, against tech stocks and other bets made with borrowed money.
Bitcoin holds most of the capital here, and ether most of the rest. We measure the attention and the capital, not the price of any coin.
176 ETFs carry this narrative; 142 have it as their main one. Here is how its capital divides among them.
The asset-weighted return of the unlevered ETFs that carry this narrative, against broad US ETFs. Measured and past, not a forecast.
| 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto convictionits ETFs, unlevered | +9.5% | +39.0% | −2.9% | −29.5% | +50.5% | +10.3% |
| rank among the narratives | 2nd of 22 | 2nd of 22 | 21st of 22 | 20th of 21 | 1st of 21 | 10th of 21 |
| The marketbroad US ETFs | +0.8% | +2.6% | +14.6% | +16.8% | +22.9% | +12.9% |
1M, 3M, 1Y, 3Y, 5Y: one month to five years. YTD: year to date. * A year, annualized. Rank is among the narratives with a full record for the period. A dash means the narrative’s ETFs do not cover the whole period.
Total return on the market price, each distribution reinvested on its ex-date. The narrative is the asset-weighted return of the unlevered ETFs that carry it; the market is the asset-weighted return of broad US index ETFs. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
7 categories, each claimed by a written rule. The bar is each one’s share of the capital. The table names what decides each.
| Category | ETFs | Capital | Share of the ETFs | Share of the capital |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BitcoinThe bitcoin price, and for the futures-based ETFs, the cost of rolling futures | 24 | $109 bn | 17% | 77.6% |
| EtherThe ether price, and for the staking ETFs, the reward for staking | 13 | $17.7 bn | 9% | 12.6% |
| Levered and inverse wrappersThe day-to-day path of bitcoin, ether, XRP and four crypto company shares, which a daily reset compounds | 46 | $5.7 bn | 32% | 4.0% |
| Other coins and basketsThe prices of the coins beyond bitcoin and ether, weighted by each basket's rules | 15 | $4.3 bn | 11% | 3.1% |
| Crypto company ETFsCrypto prices and trading volumes, and for miners, the cost of power | 13 | $3.1 bn | 9% | 2.2% |
| Buffered and defined-outcomeThe cap and the floor the options set, reset each period | 22 | $0.5 bn | 15% | 0.3% |
| Everything else | 9 | $0.3 bn | 6% | 0.2% |
The widest gap: levered and inverse wrappers, 32% of the ETFs and 4.0% of the capital.
What issuers have listed with this as the main narrative, by wrapper.
What issuers have listed, not what anyone expects. A wrapper can be listed before anyone wants it, so a count of ETFs and a share of capital answer different questions.
176 US ETFs carry it. The largest holders of its capital are IBIT (49.5%), FBTC (11.4%) and GBTC (7.8%).
IBIT, with 49.5% of the capital in ETFs carrying the story; the top five hold 79.8%.
Its attention level is 57.0 on a scale of 25 to 60, tied 4th of 22 this week, in the WARM band. The level averages six channels: search, video, news, forums, investor boards and reference pages.
Asset weighted, its ETFs returned −29.5% over the past year, against +16.8% for broad US ETFs, to October 2, 2026. Past performance only.
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