The chips, memory and data centers AI runs on, and the big technology companies that build and buy them.
The AI compute core is one of 22 market stories StoryVector measures. 396 US ETFs carry it, with $682 billion between them; the largest holder, VGT, holds 23.8% of its capital. This week it ranks tied 4th of 22 for attention, in the WARM band. Over the past year its ETFs returned +50.2%, against +16.8% for broad US ETFs, to October 2, 2026; past performance, not a recommendation.
Its level among all 22 on the fixed 25 to 60 scale. The band is where the level sits this week, not a direction.
Its ETFs ranked among the narratives, lowest to highest. The white notch is this one; the thin tick is where broad US ETFs would sit. Measured and past, not a forecast.
What the story is about, where its attention comes from, what sets it off, and what it shares ETFs with.
AI spending is huge and still growing. What is it evidence of?
There is not enough computing power. The orders and the shortages are real, and the money is a response to demand that already exists.
The build has moved from cash to debt, and sellers now lend to their own buyers. The money says as much about how it was raised as what it bought.
What would separate them. Who pays for the build. When a chipmaker invests in a company that buys its chips, the first reading sees a partnership and the second sees a seller funding its own customer. Same deal, two readings of what the revenue means.
Both readings use the same facts, which is what makes this an argument and not a dispute about data. We measure the attention and the capital, not which reading is right.
396 ETFs carry this narrative; 344 have it as their main one. Here is how its capital divides among them.
The asset-weighted return of the unlevered ETFs that carry this narrative, against broad US ETFs. Measured and past, not a forecast.
| 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The AI compute coreits ETFs, unlevered | +9.5% | +8.7% | +47.8% | +50.2% | +41.6% | +24.5% |
| rank among the narratives | 2nd of 22 | 6th of 22 | 1st of 22 | 1st of 21 | 2nd of 21 | 1st of 21 |
| The marketbroad US ETFs | +0.8% | +2.6% | +14.6% | +16.8% | +22.9% | +12.9% |
1M, 3M, 1Y, 3Y, 5Y: one month to five years. YTD: year to date. * A year, annualized. Rank is among the narratives with a full record for the period. A dash means the narrative’s ETFs do not cover the whole period.
Total return on the market price, each distribution reinvested on its ex-date. The narrative is the asset-weighted return of the unlevered ETFs that carry it; the market is the asset-weighted return of broad US index ETFs. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
9 categories, each claimed by a written rule. The bar is each one’s share of the capital. The table names what decides each.
| Category | ETFs | Capital | Share of the ETFs | Share of the capital |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad technology wrappersWhether the build is a story inside technology, or the thing technology currently is | 35 | $390 bn | 10% | 57.1% |
| SemiconductorsWhether the chip tier is where the constraint sits and where the return on it is booked | 15 | $135 bn | 4% | 19.7% |
| Levered and inverse wrappersHow fast an issuer can list a wrapper against how fast capital arrives in one | 223 | $66.3 bn | 65% | 9.7% |
| Communication servicesWhether the largest buyers of AI compute earn back what they spend on it | 4 | $31.3 bn | 1% | 4.6% |
| MemoryWhether high-bandwidth memory is the part that runs short | 6 | $26.2 bn | 2% | 3.8% |
| AI thematic wrappersWhether the story's return shows up in one tier or across the largest names generally | 38 | $25.0 bn | 11% | 3.7% |
| Everything else | 7 | $5.8 bn | 2% | 0.8% |
| The physical plantWhether the binding constraint sits in the chip or in everything built around it | 10 | $2.8 bn | 3% | 0.4% |
| Photonics and optical interconnectWhether the limit on a training cluster is the parts or the connection between them | 6 | $0.9 bn | 2% | 0.1% |
The widest gap: levered and inverse wrappers, 65% of the ETFs and 9.7% of the capital.
What issuers have listed with this as the main narrative, by wrapper.
What issuers have listed, not what anyone expects. A wrapper can be listed before anyone wants it, so a count of ETFs and a share of capital answer different questions.
396 US ETFs carry it. The largest holders of its capital are VGT (23.8%), XLK (20.5%) and SMH (12.1%).
VGT, with 23.8% of the capital in ETFs carrying the story; the top five hold 68.5%.
Its attention level is 57.0 on a scale of 25 to 60, tied 4th of 22 this week, in the WARM band. The level averages six channels: search, video, news, forums, investor boards and reference pages.
Asset weighted, its ETFs returned +50.2% over the past year, against +16.8% for broad US ETFs, to October 2, 2026. Past performance only.
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