Oil and the companies that produce, move and refine it, priced partly on the risk that supply is cut off.
Geopolitical supply is one of 22 market stories StoryVector measures. 88 US ETFs carry it, with $107 billion between them; the largest holder, XLE, holds 37.4% of its capital. This week it ranks 6th of 22 for attention, in the WARM band. Over the past year its ETFs returned +39.7%, against +16.8% for broad US ETFs, to October 2, 2026; past performance, not a recommendation.
Its level among all 22 on the fixed 25 to 60 scale. The band is where the level sits this week, not a direction.
Its ETFs ranked among the narratives, lowest to highest. The white notch is this one; the thin tick is where broad US ETFs would sit. Measured and past, not a forecast.
What the story is about, where its attention comes from, what sets it off, and what it shares ETFs with.
Oil is priced partly on the risk that supply gets cut off. How much of the price is that risk, and how much is actual barrels?
The price carries a conflict premium, the chance that Hormuz, Iran or OPEC+ cuts supply, and it goes when the risk does.
Physical supply and demand set the price. Conflict matters only when it actually takes barrels off the market.
What would separate them. Whether barrels go missing. A premium moves with the news while exports hold. A barrels story shows up in lost exports and falling inventories.
Broad energy ETFs hold most of the capital here, and their companies earn on the price whichever reading is right. We measure the attention and the capital, not the price of oil.
88 ETFs carry this narrative; 79 have it as their main one. Here is how its capital divides among them.
The asset-weighted return of the unlevered ETFs that carry this narrative, against broad US ETFs. Measured and past, not a forecast.
| 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitical supplyits ETFs, unlevered | −4.2% | +13.8% | +36.3% | +39.7% | +16.9% | +20.3% |
| rank among the narratives | 18th of 22 | 4th of 22 | 3rd of 22 | 2nd of 21 | 14th of 21 | 2nd of 21 |
| The marketbroad US ETFs | +0.8% | +2.6% | +14.6% | +16.8% | +22.9% | +12.9% |
1M, 3M, 1Y, 3Y, 5Y: one month to five years. YTD: year to date. * A year, annualized. Rank is among the narratives with a full record for the period. A dash means the narrative’s ETFs do not cover the whole period.
Total return on the market price, each distribution reinvested on its ex-date. The narrative is the asset-weighted return of the unlevered ETFs that carry it; the market is the asset-weighted return of broad US index ETFs. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
7 categories, each claimed by a written rule. The bar is each one’s share of the capital. The table names what decides each.
| Category | ETFs | Capital | Share of the ETFs | Share of the capital |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad energyThe price of oil and gas, and how much of their cash producers spend or return to shareholders | 15 | $53.9 bn | 19% | 50.1% |
| Pipelines and MLPsThe volume of oil and gas shipped, and interest rates | 8 | $20.2 bn | 10% | 18.8% |
| Natural resources and inflationPrices across energy, metals, farmland and timber together | 13 | $17.7 bn | 16% | 16.5% |
| Producers, services and refinersFor producers, the oil and gas price; for service companies, how much producers drill; for refiners, the difference between crude and fuel prices | 10 | $8.8 bn | 13% | 8.2% |
| Crude oil futuresThe crude price, and the difference between today's price and the futures price for later delivery | 5 | $2.9 bn | 6% | 2.7% |
| Levered and inverse wrappersThe day-to-day path of crude, natural gas and energy share indexes, which a daily reset compounds | 22 | $2.8 bn | 28% | 2.6% |
| Everything else | 6 | $1.2 bn | 8% | 1.1% |
The widest gap: levered and inverse wrappers, 28% of the ETFs and 2.6% of the capital.
What issuers have listed with this as the main narrative, by wrapper.
What issuers have listed, not what anyone expects. A wrapper can be listed before anyone wants it, so a count of ETFs and a share of capital answer different questions.
88 US ETFs carry it. The largest holders of its capital are XLE (37.4%), AMLP (12.1%) and VDE (9.6%).
XLE, with 37.4% of the capital in ETFs carrying the story; the top five hold 70.4%.
Its attention level is 56.9 on a scale of 25 to 60, 6th of 22 this week, in the WARM band. The level averages six channels: search, video, news, forums, investor boards and reference pages.
Asset weighted, its ETFs returned +39.7% over the past year, against +16.8% for broad US ETFs, to October 2, 2026. Past performance only.
Run an ETF in geopolitical supply? StoryVector shows issuers where their ETFs stand against the closest rivals, every week.
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