Infrastructure, critical metals and materials: what it takes to make more things at home.
The reshoring trade is one of 22 market stories StoryVector measures. 87 US ETFs carry it, with $70 billion between them; the largest holder, PAVE, holds 18.5% of its capital. This week it ranks 21st of 22 for attention, in the QUIET band. Over the past year its ETFs returned +14.5%, against +16.8% for broad US ETFs, to October 2, 2026; past performance, not a recommendation.
Its level among all 22 on the fixed 25 to 60 scale. The band is where the level sits this week, not a direction.
Its ETFs ranked among the narratives, lowest to highest. The white notch is this one; the thin tick is where broad US ETFs would sit. Measured and past, not a forecast.
What the story is about, where its attention comes from, what sets it off, and what it shares ETFs with. This week it was measured on 5 of the six channels, and the channel chart is drawn only when all six report.
Governments are paying to bring production home. Does that build lasting capacity, or mostly raise costs?
Tariffs, subsidies and security rules make it worth producing chips, metals and materials at home for the long run, and the infrastructure follows.
Policy raises the cost of making things without changing where most of it is made. The spending shows up as higher prices and announcements more than new plants.
What would separate them. What gets built. Plants, mines and grid under construction fit the first reading. Tariffs collected and higher prices with no new capacity fit the second.
Infrastructure is the largest category here, and materials and metals hold most of the rest. We measure the attention and the capital, not what gets built.
87 ETFs carry this narrative; 69 have it as their main one. Here is how its capital divides among them.
The asset-weighted return of the unlevered ETFs that carry this narrative, against broad US ETFs. Measured and past, not a forecast.
| 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The reshoring tradeits ETFs, unlevered | −4.9% | −3.8% | +9.5% | +14.5% | +20.1% | +12.7% |
| rank among the narratives | 20th of 22 | 17th of 22 | 11th of 22 | 10th of 21 | 12th of 21 | 6th of 21 |
| The marketbroad US ETFs | +0.8% | +2.6% | +14.6% | +16.8% | +22.9% | +12.9% |
1M, 3M, 1Y, 3Y, 5Y: one month to five years. YTD: year to date. * A year, annualized. Rank is among the narratives with a full record for the period. A dash means the narrative’s ETFs do not cover the whole period.
Total return on the market price, each distribution reinvested on its ex-date. The narrative is the asset-weighted return of the unlevered ETFs that carry it; the market is the asset-weighted return of broad US index ETFs. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
7 categories, each claimed by a written rule. The bar is each one’s share of the capital. The table names what decides each.
| Category | ETFs | Capital | Share of the ETFs | Share of the capital |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| InfrastructureGovernment infrastructure spending, and interest rates | 12 | $31.6 bn | 17% | 45.1% |
| Materials sectorDemand for chemicals, packaging and building materials across the economy | 11 | $13.7 bn | 16% | 19.5% |
| Critical materialsThe prices of copper, lithium and rare earths, and trade rules on where they may come from | 15 | $11.9 bn | 22% | 17.0% |
| Metals and miningPrices for steel, aluminum and other industrial metals, and the tariffs on imported metal | 4 | $6.7 bn | 6% | 9.6% |
| Water, farmland and timberSpending on water systems, crop prices and farm incomes, and timber prices | 7 | $6.0 bn | 10% | 8.6% |
| Levered and inverse wrappersThe day-to-day path of the transportation index and of Flex's share price, which a daily reset compounds | 18 | $0.1 bn | 26% | 0.2% |
| Everything else | 2 | under $0.1 bn | 3% | 0.0% |
The widest gap: levered and inverse wrappers, 26% of the ETFs and 0.2% of the capital.
What issuers have listed with this as the main narrative, by wrapper.
What issuers have listed, not what anyone expects. A wrapper can be listed before anyone wants it, so a count of ETFs and a share of capital answer different questions.
87 US ETFs carry it. The largest holders of its capital are PAVE (18.5%), IGF (14.0%) and XLB (10.8%).
PAVE, with 18.5% of the capital in ETFs carrying the story; the top five hold 59.1%.
Its attention level is 40.5 on a scale of 25 to 60, 21st of 22 this week, in the QUIET band. The level averages six channels: search, video, news, forums, investor boards and reference pages.
Asset weighted, its ETFs returned +14.5% over the past year, against +16.8% for broad US ETFs, to October 2, 2026. Past performance only.
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