Retailers, brands and US manufacturers: the companies that pay tariffs or are protected by them.
The trade-war tax is one of 22 market stories StoryVector measures. 30 US ETFs carry it, with $40 billion between them; the largest holder, XLY, holds 57.4% of its capital. This week it ranks 16th of 22 for attention, in the WARM band. Over the past year its ETFs returned −3.7%, against +16.8% for broad US ETFs, to October 2, 2026; past performance, not a recommendation.
Its level among all 22 on the fixed 25 to 60 scale. The band is where the level sits this week, not a direction.
Its ETFs ranked among the narratives, lowest to highest. The white notch is this one; the thin tick is where broad US ETFs would sit. Measured and past, not a forecast.
What the story is about, where its attention comes from, what sets it off, and what it shares ETFs with. This week it was measured on 5 of the six channels, and the channel chart is drawn only when all six report.
Someone pays a tariff. Is it shoppers, through prices, or companies, through margins?
Importers pass the cost on and shoppers pay it. It shows up on the shelf and in household budgets.
Companies absorb the cost to hold prices and keep customers. It shows up in profits and profit forecasts, not on the shelf.
What would separate them. Where the cost lands. Higher shelf prices and weaker sales fit the first reading. Profit warnings and lowered forecasts with prices held fit the second.
Retailers and consumer brands hold most of the capital here, and either reading lands on them. We measure the attention and the capital, not who pays the tariff.
30 ETFs carry this narrative; 22 have it as their main one. Here is how its capital divides among them.
The asset-weighted return of the unlevered ETFs that carry this narrative, against broad US ETFs. Measured and past, not a forecast.
| 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The trade-war taxits ETFs, unlevered | −3.3% | −7.5% | −3.8% | −3.7% | +15.0% | +7.7% |
| rank among the narratives | 16th of 22 | 18th of 22 | 22nd of 22 | 19th of 21 | 16th of 21 | 14th of 21 |
| The marketbroad US ETFs | +0.8% | +2.6% | +14.6% | +16.8% | +22.9% | +12.9% |
1M, 3M, 1Y, 3Y, 5Y: one month to five years. YTD: year to date. * A year, annualized. Rank is among the narratives with a full record for the period. A dash means the narrative’s ETFs do not cover the whole period.
Total return on the market price, each distribution reinvested on its ex-date. The narrative is the asset-weighted return of the unlevered ETFs that carry it; the market is the asset-weighted return of broad US index ETFs. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
4 categories, each claimed by a written rule. The bar is each one’s share of the capital. The table names what decides each.
| Category | ETFs | Capital | Share of the ETFs | Share of the capital |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer discretionaryWhat households spend on things they can put off, and the cost of imported goods and parts | 5 | $30.5 bn | 23% | 76.4% |
| US manufacturingDomestic factory orders, and tariffs on competing imports against tariffs on imported parts and materials | 6 | $9.3 bn | 27% | 23.4% |
| Levered and inverse wrappers | 9 | $0.1 bn | 41% | 0.2% |
| Domestic revenueThe share of each company's sales earned at home | 2 | under $0.1 bn | 9% | 0.0% |
The widest gap: levered and inverse wrappers, 41% of the ETFs and 0.2% of the capital.
What issuers have listed with this as the main narrative, by wrapper.
What issuers have listed, not what anyone expects. A wrapper can be listed before anyone wants it, so a count of ETFs and a share of capital answer different questions.
30 US ETFs carry it. The largest holders of its capital are XLY (57.4%), AIRR (16.9%) and VCR (16.6%).
XLY, with 57.4% of the capital in ETFs carrying the story; the top five hold 98.4%.
Its attention level is 43.1 on a scale of 25 to 60, 16th of 22 this week, in the WARM band. The level averages six channels: search, video, news, forums, investor boards and reference pages.
Asset weighted, its ETFs returned −3.7% over the past year, against +16.8% for broad US ETFs, to October 2, 2026. Past performance only.
Run an ETF in the trade-war tax? StoryVector shows issuers where their ETFs stand against the closest rivals, every week.
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