Disruptive innovation, online consumers, betting and stocks chosen by social sentiment: where the retail crowd puts its money.
Pure narrative flow is one of 22 market stories StoryVector measures. 99 US ETFs carry it, with $93 billion between them; the largest holder, ARKK, holds 91.7% of its capital. This week it ranks 9th of 22 for attention, in the WARM band. Over the past year its ETFs returned −0.4%, against +16.8% for broad US ETFs, to October 2, 2026; past performance, not a recommendation.
Its level among all 22 on the fixed 25 to 60 scale. The band is where the level sits this week, not a direction.
Its ETFs ranked among the narratives, lowest to highest. The white notch is this one; the thin tick is where broad US ETFs would sit. Measured and past, not a forecast.
What the story is about, where its attention comes from, what sets it off, and what it shares ETFs with. This week it was measured on 5 of the six channels, and the channel chart is drawn only when all six report.
This narrative is attention on the crowd itself: retail trading, speculative listings, meme stocks. Is the crowd its own story, or the other narratives at their loudest?
Retail speculation is a force of its own, with its own products, events and language, worth measuring apart from any company.
Speculation has no subject of its own. It is whatever story is loudest that week, pushed a bit further.
What would separate them. Whether its events stand alone. If the crowd is its own story, its news is its own: listings, forced selling, short squeezes. If it is a mood, its stories arrive attached to other narratives, mostly AI and crypto.
One ETF holds most of the capital here, so the capital says little about the crowd either way. We measure the attention and the capital, not what the crowd will do.
99 ETFs carry this narrative; 89 have it as their main one. Here is how its capital divides among them.
The asset-weighted return of the unlevered ETFs that carry this narrative, against broad US ETFs. Measured and past, not a forecast.
| 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pure narrative flowits ETFs, unlevered | +6.7% | +9.4% | +14.8% | −0.4% | +31.0% | −3.6% |
| rank among the narratives | 6th of 22 | 5th of 22 | 7th of 22 | 16th of 21 | 6th of 21 | 21st of 21 |
| The marketbroad US ETFs | +0.8% | +2.6% | +14.6% | +16.8% | +22.9% | +12.9% |
1M, 3M, 1Y, 3Y, 5Y: one month to five years. YTD: year to date. * A year, annualized. Rank is among the narratives with a full record for the period. A dash means the narrative’s ETFs do not cover the whole period.
Total return on the market price, each distribution reinvested on its ex-date. The narrative is the asset-weighted return of the unlevered ETFs that carry it; the market is the asset-weighted return of broad US index ETFs. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
6 categories, each claimed by a written rule. The bar is each one’s share of the capital. The table names what decides each.
| Category | ETFs | Capital | Share of the ETFs | Share of the capital |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levered and inverse wrappersThe day-to-day path of ARKK's price, which a daily reset compounds | 77 | $85.0 bn | 87% | 91.0% |
| Disruptive innovationInterest rates, which set what profits years away are worth today, and one manager's choice of companies | 1 | $7.9 bn | 1% | 8.5% |
| Online and social consumersConsumer spending online and advertising on social platforms | 3 | $0.3 bn | 3% | 0.3% |
| Sentiment-picked stocksWhich stocks online posts or analyst ratings favor at each rebalance | 2 | $0.1 bn | 2% | 0.1% |
| Betting and gamblingState approvals for sports betting and online casinos, and the share of each wager operators keep | 2 | under $0.1 bn | 2% | 0.0% |
| Buffered and defined-outcomeThe cap and the buffer set at the start of each outcome period | 4 | under $0.1 bn | 4% | 0.0% |
What issuers have listed with this as the main narrative, by wrapper.
What issuers have listed, not what anyone expects. A wrapper can be listed before anyone wants it, so a count of ETFs and a share of capital answer different questions.
99 US ETFs carry it. The largest holders of its capital are ARKK (91.7%), IBUY (2.0%) and BUZZ (1.7%).
ARKK, with 91.7% of the capital in ETFs carrying the story; the top five hold 98.2%.
Its attention level is 53.0 on a scale of 25 to 60, 9th of 22 this week, in the WARM band. The level averages six channels: search, video, news, forums, investor boards and reference pages.
Asset weighted, its ETFs returned −0.4% over the past year, against +16.8% for broad US ETFs, to October 2, 2026. Past performance only.
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