Hedges, buffered ETFs, volatility and trend strategies: the products built around market falls.
The fear layer is one of 22 market stories StoryVector measures. 584 US ETFs carry it, with $120 billion between them; the largest holder, DBMF, holds 3.8% of its capital. This week it ranks 18th of 22 for attention, in the WARM band. Over the past year its ETFs returned +11.8%, against +16.8% for broad US ETFs, to October 2, 2026; past performance, not a recommendation.
Its level among all 22 on the fixed 25 to 60 scale. The band is where the level sits this week, not a direction.
Its ETFs ranked among the narratives, lowest to highest. The white notch is this one; the thin tick is where broad US ETFs would sit. Measured and past, not a forecast.
What the story is about, where its attention comes from, what sets it off, and what it shares ETFs with. This week it was measured on 5 of the six channels, and the channel chart is drawn only when all six report.
This narrative holds hedges, buffers and trend strategies. Are they insurance against a sharp fall, or products held as routine?
Holders pay for protection because they see a real chance of a sharp fall. The demand is about the market.
Buffers, income strategies and trend strategies are sold as permanent parts of a portfolio, a smoother way to own stocks, whatever the market does.
What would separate them. Paying or getting paid. Paying for protection, through crash hedges and bets on bigger swings, fits the first reading. Building it into a set floor and cap, or selling it for income, fits the second.
Two managed futures ETFs are the largest holders here, and trend strategies fit neither reading neatly. We measure the attention and the capital, not the level of fear.
584 ETFs carry this narrative; 578 have it as their main one. Here is how its capital divides among them.
The asset-weighted return of the unlevered ETFs that carry this narrative, against broad US ETFs. Measured and past, not a forecast.
| 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The fear layerits ETFs, unlevered | +1.0% | +3.2% | +9.3% | +11.8% | +13.6% | +9.5% |
| rank among the narratives | 9th of 22 | 8th of 22 | 12th of 22 | 11th of 21 | 18th of 21 | 12th of 21 |
| The marketbroad US ETFs | +0.8% | +2.6% | +14.6% | +16.8% | +22.9% | +12.9% |
1M, 3M, 1Y, 3Y, 5Y: one month to five years. YTD: year to date. * A year, annualized. Rank is among the narratives with a full record for the period. A dash means the narrative’s ETFs do not cover the whole period.
Total return on the market price, each distribution reinvested on its ex-date. The narrative is the asset-weighted return of the unlevered ETFs that carry it; the market is the asset-weighted return of broad US index ETFs. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
7 categories, each claimed by a written rule. The bar is each one’s share of the capital. The table names what decides each.
| Category | ETFs | Capital | Share of the ETFs | Share of the capital |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffered and defined-outcomeThe cap and the buffer set at the start of each outcome period | 476 | $97.1 bn | 82% | 81.0% |
| Managed futuresWhether markets trend persistently in either direction | 12 | $8.7 bn | 2% | 7.3% |
| Auto-callable ETFsWhether a contingent coupon is read as income or as payment for a barrier | 34 | $5.6 bn | 6% | 4.7% |
| Everything else | 32 | $3.7 bn | 6% | 3.1% |
| Hedges and tail protectionWhat protection costs, and how sharply markets fall | 17 | $3.1 bn | 3% | 2.6% |
| Levered and inverse wrappersThe day-to-day path of VIX futures, which a daily reset compounds | 5 | $1.4 bn | 1% | 1.1% |
| VIX futuresExpected volatility, and the cost of rolling VIX futures | 2 | $0.3 bn | 0% | 0.2% |
What issuers have listed with this as the main narrative, by wrapper.
What issuers have listed, not what anyone expects. A wrapper can be listed before anyone wants it, so a count of ETFs and a share of capital answer different questions.
584 US ETFs carry it. The largest holders of its capital are DBMF (3.8%), BALT (3.1%) and ACYN (2.4%).
DBMF, with 3.8% of the capital in ETFs carrying the story; the top five hold 13.1%.
Its attention level is 42.3 on a scale of 25 to 60, 18th of 22 this week, in the WARM band. The level averages six channels: search, video, news, forums, investor boards and reference pages.
Asset weighted, its ETFs returned +11.8% over the past year, against +16.8% for broad US ETFs, to October 2, 2026. Past performance only.
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