Bonds, cash and Treasuries: the interest rates every other asset is priced against.
The rate regime is one of 22 market stories StoryVector measures. 424 US ETFs carry it, with $1.6 trillion between them; the largest holder, BND, holds 7.6% of its capital. This week it ranks 3rd of 22 for attention, in the HOT band. Over the past year its ETFs returned −0.6%, against +16.8% for broad US ETFs, to October 2, 2026; past performance, not a recommendation.
Its level among all 22 on the fixed 25 to 60 scale. The band is where the level sits this week, not a direction.
Its ETFs ranked among the narratives, lowest to highest. The white notch is this one; the thin tick is where broad US ETFs would sit. Measured and past, not a forecast.
What the story is about, where its attention comes from, what sets it off, and what it shares ETFs with.
Rates set the price of most other assets. Is today's level a lasting reset, or one phase of a cycle?
Higher borrowing costs are here for years, not months. Lenders want more to lend for longer, and portfolios are being rebuilt around that.
Today's level belongs to this cycle. The Fed raises rates and then cuts them, and the old setup returns when it does.
What would separate them. Short or long rates. A cycle is about the Fed and shows first in short-term rates. A reset is about what lenders demand to lend for longer and shows in long-term yields and at Treasury auctions.
Every category here sits somewhere on the same range of rates: cash earns the Fed's rate, long bonds take long-term rates, and inflation-protected bonds pay off when inflation beats what was expected. We measure the attention and the capital, not where rates go.
424 ETFs carry this narrative; 389 have it as their main one. Here is how its capital divides among them.
The asset-weighted return of the unlevered ETFs that carry this narrative, against broad US ETFs. Measured and past, not a forecast.
| 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The rate regimeits ETFs, unlevered | −1.6% | −2.2% | −1.2% | −0.6% | +4.3% | +0.5% |
| rank among the narratives | 11th of 22 | 15th of 22 | 20th of 22 | 17th of 21 | 21st of 21 | 20th of 21 |
| The marketbroad US ETFs | +0.8% | +2.6% | +14.6% | +16.8% | +22.9% | +12.9% |
1M, 3M, 1Y, 3Y, 5Y: one month to five years. YTD: year to date. * A year, annualized. Rank is among the narratives with a full record for the period. A dash means the narrative’s ETFs do not cover the whole period.
Total return on the market price, each distribution reinvested on its ex-date. The narrative is the asset-weighted return of the unlevered ETFs that carry it; the market is the asset-weighted return of broad US index ETFs. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
8 categories, each claimed by a written rule. The bar is each one’s share of the capital. The table names what decides each.
| Category | ETFs | Capital | Share of the ETFs | Share of the capital |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core bondsThe level of yields across all maturities, plus what investment-grade credit and mortgages pay over Treasuries | 166 | $657 bn | 43% | 40.9% |
| Cash and T-billsThe policy rate the Fed sets | 59 | $386 bn | 15% | 24.0% |
| Treasury maturitiesThe shape of the yield curve, what each maturity pays against the others | 74 | $319 bn | 19% | 19.9% |
| Mortgage bondsHow quickly homeowners refinance or sell, which decides when the principal comes back | 18 | $82.1 bn | 5% | 5.1% |
| Inflation protectionInflation as it arrives, set against the inflation the market had already priced in | 36 | $78.0 bn | 9% | 4.9% |
| Long durationWhat lenders demand to lend to the government for twenty years or more instead of a few months at a time | 10 | $76.2 bn | 3% | 4.7% |
| Rate hedgesThe price of protection against a large move in rates | 14 | $6.7 bn | 4% | 0.4% |
| Levered and inverse wrappersThe day-to-day path of long Treasury prices, which a daily reset compounds | 12 | $2.9 bn | 3% | 0.2% |
What issuers have listed with this as the main narrative, by wrapper.
What issuers have listed, not what anyone expects. A wrapper can be listed before anyone wants it, so a count of ETFs and a share of capital answer different questions.
424 US ETFs carry it. The largest holders of its capital are BND (7.6%), SGOV (7.5%) and AGG (6.3%).
BND, with 7.6% of the capital in ETFs carrying the story; the top five hold 27.8%.
Its attention level is 57.8 on a scale of 25 to 60, 3rd of 22 this week, in the HOT band. The level averages six channels: search, video, news, forums, investor boards and reference pages.
Asset weighted, its ETFs returned −0.6% over the past year, against +16.8% for broad US ETFs, to October 2, 2026. Past performance only.
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