Corporate bonds, loans and the banks that make them: the price of lending to companies.
The credit signal is one of 22 market stories StoryVector measures. 431 US ETFs carry it, with $685 billion between them; the largest holder, XLF, holds 6.2% of its capital. This week it ranks 22nd of 22 for attention, in the QUIET band. Over the past year its ETFs returned +0.6%, against +16.8% for broad US ETFs, to October 2, 2026; past performance, not a recommendation.
Its level among all 22 on the fixed 25 to 60 scale. The band is where the level sits this week, not a direction.
Its ETFs ranked among the narratives, lowest to highest. The white notch is this one; the thin tick is where broad US ETFs would sit. Measured and past, not a forecast.
What the story is about, where its attention comes from, what sets it off, and what it shares ETFs with.
This narrative covers lending: the companies that borrow, the banks that lend and the products that pool loans. What is the extra yield on corporate debt paying for?
Defaults are low and company balance sheets are sound, so the extra yield is fair pay for a small risk.
A lot of new money is lending, private credit and AI buildout debt among it. A crowded market accepts less pay for the same risk.
What would separate them. Actual losses. Under the first reading, losses stay inside what the extra yield pays for. Under the second, they come in above it. High yield bonds, bank loans and CLOs are where this shows, not top-rated company bonds.
This narrative holds the lenders as well as the loans: bank stocks sit beside bond ETFs. We measure the attention and the capital, not the state of credit.
431 ETFs carry this narrative; 374 have it as their main one. Here is how its capital divides among them.
The asset-weighted return of the unlevered ETFs that carry this narrative, against broad US ETFs. Measured and past, not a forecast.
| 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The credit signalits ETFs, unlevered | −2.2% | −2.4% | −0.5% | +0.6% | +8.2% | +2.7% |
| rank among the narratives | 13th of 22 | 16th of 22 | 19th of 22 | 15th of 21 | 20th of 21 | 17th of 21 |
| The marketbroad US ETFs | +0.8% | +2.6% | +14.6% | +16.8% | +22.9% | +12.9% |
1M, 3M, 1Y, 3Y, 5Y: one month to five years. YTD: year to date. * A year, annualized. Rank is among the narratives with a full record for the period. A dash means the narrative’s ETFs do not cover the whole period.
Total return on the market price, each distribution reinvested on its ex-date. The narrative is the asset-weighted return of the unlevered ETFs that carry it; the market is the asset-weighted return of broad US index ETFs. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
8 categories, each claimed by a written rule. The bar is each one’s share of the capital. The table names what decides each.
| Category | ETFs | Capital | Share of the ETFs | Share of the capital |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investment grade corporatesThe extra yield strong companies pay over the government to borrow | 103 | $321 bn | 28% | 46.8% |
| High yieldHow many lower-rated companies fail to repay, against what their bonds pay to compensate for it | 85 | $112 bn | 23% | 16.4% |
| Multi-sector income | 107 | $90.9 bn | 29% | 13.3% |
| Banks and financialsWhat banks pay for deposits against what they earn on loans, and how many of those loans go bad | 15 | $84.3 bn | 4% | 12.3% |
| CLOsLosses on the leveraged loans underneath, and where in the payment order the holder stands | 29 | $54.8 bn | 8% | 8.0% |
| Senior loansThe cash rate the coupon floats on, and defaults among the borrowers | 10 | $17.2 bn | 3% | 2.5% |
| Levered and inverse wrappersThe day-to-day path of the financial-sector index, which a daily reset compounds | 19 | $3.1 bn | 5% | 0.5% |
| Rate hedgesThe extra yield over Treasuries alone, because the rate underneath is hedged away | 6 | $1.7 bn | 2% | 0.3% |
The widest gap: multi-sector income, 29% of the ETFs and 13.3% of the capital.
What issuers have listed with this as the main narrative, by wrapper.
What issuers have listed, not what anyone expects. A wrapper can be listed before anyone wants it, so a count of ETFs and a share of capital answer different questions.
431 US ETFs carry it. The largest holders of its capital are XLF (6.2%), BND (5.9%) and VCIT (5.7%).
XLF, with 6.2% of the capital in ETFs carrying the story; the top five hold 26.5%.
Its attention level is 34.7 on a scale of 25 to 60, 22nd of 22 this week, in the QUIET band. The level averages six channels: search, video, news, forums, investor boards and reference pages.
Asset weighted, its ETFs returned +0.6% over the past year, against +16.8% for broad US ETFs, to October 2, 2026. Past performance only.
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