Research/Event Read 01
The day after the vote, the stories diverged
On Election Day, the stock market's big stories barely moved. On Wednesday, they diverged.
Stocks tied to interest rates and the US economy rose sharply. Energy fell. Gold and silver miners clawed back a bad week, and the AI stories, the biggest losers of the week before, stayed down. SPY rose 1.7%.
Measured against how much each usually moves, the gap between the 22 narratives StoryVector tracks was wider on November 4 than on any of the previous 60 trading days. On Election Day, every one of them had moved less than on a normal day.
The split
Each line is one narrative, from Election Day to the day after. A normal day is the narrative's typical daily move over the 60 sessions before November 4. Hover for detail; click a line to see what is inside it.
Rates and the US economy rallied
Banks and financials rose 3.2% and real estate 3.1%, each nearly four times its normal daily move. Homebuilders gained 6.5%. The refinancing cycle, StoryVector's narrative for real estate and homebuilders, had its biggest move in a year.
Consumer discretionary ETFs rose 4.3%. Medical devices and providers gained 5.3%, more than five times a normal day and the largest move for its size among categories of $5bn or more.
Energy went the other way
Oil and gas producers fell 5.7% and broad energy ETFs 4.8%. USO, which tracks oil itself, dropped 8.1%. Geopolitical supply had its worst day in a year and is down 7.6% since the October 30 close. Managed futures ETFs fell 2.9%.
The week, then the day after
Return since the October 27 close for four categories, on the same scale; dashed: the S&P 500 (SPY). Shaded: November 4. Hover for each day.
Inside the stories
The biggest moves for their size on November 4, among categories of $5bn or more, with each category's largest ETF.
Miners bounced; AI didn't
Gold and silver miners jumped 9.2%, but most of that recovered a 7.2% drop in the five sessions before. The AI stories got no such lift. Semiconductor ETFs fell 7.8% in the week before the vote and another 2.9% after it. Software, down 9.8% that week, edged up 0.4%.
The backdrop
Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate, and the Dow had its best day after a midterm election in more than four decades. Not every move tracked the vote: oil's slide came alongside reported signs of diplomacy between the US and Iran, and some analysts said a Democratic Congress could bring closer scrutiny of AI and data-center spending.
What's next
The October inflation report is due November 10. Nvidia reports quarterly results on November 17. The Federal Reserve announces its next rate decision on December 9.
One day isn't a trend. The question is whether the split holds.
Notes and method. Narratives and categories: unleveraged ETFs StoryVector places in the 22 narratives by their holdings, weighted by assets; leveraged and inverse ETFs left out; categories need three ETFs. Returns: total return at market price, close to close. A normal day: the typical daily move over the prior 60 sessions. Five days before: October 28 to November 3. ETFs named are among the largest in their category. Backdrop from news reports of November 4; dates ahead from official calendars. This shows what moved after the vote, not why. Past performance, not a forecast or a recommendation. Not investment advice.