Top narratives for Friday September 11, 2026
#1Wholesale inflation broadened and futures moved to 70% for a hike
C5 · The rate regime58.3
top five hold 39.4%
99 other ETFs hold 60.6%
C7 · The credit signal35.6
top five hold 40.6%
89 other ETFs hold 59.4%
Wholesale prices rose sharply from a year earlier in August and the increase reached well beyond food and energy, with futures moving toward a policy increase at next week's meeting. The rate regime sits first on the board in the loudest band, its capital the most widely spread of any narrative here, and its proxy traded much more heavily. An inflation impulse arriving through energy rather than through demand leaves policy without a comfortable answer, and Friday's consumer print settles which reading the market takes.
Confidence 90 | Hard catalyst | Source: BLS/CNN
#2Brent settled at $107.63 and diesel set a national record
C11 · Geopolitical supply50.0
top five hold 81.3%
39 other ETFs hold 18.7%
C6 · Hard asset flight50.4
top five hold 81.5%
63 other ETFs hold 18.5%
Brent settled above $107 a barrel, its highest since May, after fighting around the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea intensified again. Geopolitical supply sits sixth on the board in the middle band, close to three quarters of its capital in three products, and its proxy traded heavier. Refined products rather than crude are where the cost reaches industry, so a record diesel price transmits the shock into freight and manufacturing whatever the benchmark does next.
Confidence 88 | Hard catalyst | Source: CNN/Rigzone
#3Adobe beat and raised, and the shares fell on a light fourth-quarter guide
C2 · The productivity handoff56.6
top five hold 82.7%
68 other ETFs hold 17.3%
C1 · The AI compute core54.6
top five hold 76.2%
142 other ETFs hold 23.8%
Adobe raised its full-year outlook, reported artificial intelligence recurring revenue far above a year ago, and the shares fell after hours on a lighter quarter ahead. The productivity handoff sits second on the board in the loudest band, with a cyber-security product now its largest capital holder, and its proxy traded lighter. A guide that trails while the underlying subscription line accelerates puts the argument on conversion timing rather than on demand, and the next quarter's bookings settle it.
Confidence 87 | Hard catalyst | Source: Adobe
#4Oracle's contracted backlog reached $664bn against a $630.6bn consensus
C1 · The AI compute core54.6
top five hold 76.2%
142 other ETFs hold 23.8%
C10 · The power constraint48.6
top five hold 82.0%
33 other ETFs hold 18.0%
Oracle's contracted cloud backlog reached $664bn against a consensus well below it, after it booked more than $30bn of new artificial intelligence contracts. The AI compute core sits third on the board in the loudest band, most of its capital in three broad technology products, and its proxy traded lighter. A backlog management expects to convert only partly over the next 36 months is a claim on future power and capacity rather than on shipped product, and the conversion path settles it.
Confidence 89 | Hard catalyst | Source: Oracle/CNBC
#5Bitwise voted to liquidate its ether and Treasuries rotation ETF
C8 · Crypto conviction47.8
top five hold 82.8%
82 other ETFs hold 17.2%
Bitwise's board voted to liquidate its ether and Treasuries rotation fund, with trading halted in early October and proceeds paid later that month. Crypto conviction sits ninth on the board in the middle band, with one spot bitcoin product holding more than half its capital, and its proxy traded lighter. A tactical wrapper closing while the plain spot wrapper holds the money says the narrative is intact and the timing product around it is not, which is a shelf question rather than an asset question.
Confidence 84 | Hard catalyst | Source: Bitwise/SEC
#6Existing home sales fell and unsold supply reached a 10-year high
C18 · The refinancing cycle41.7
top five hold 83.0%
22 other ETFs hold 17.0%
C5 · The rate regime58.3
top five hold 39.4%
99 other ETFs hold 60.6%
Existing home sales fell from a year earlier in August while the median price edged higher, and unsold inventory reached its highest level in more than a decade. The refinancing cycle sits twelfth on the board in the middle band, most of its capital in three property products, and its proxy traded far more heavily. Supply building while prices hold means the adjustment is running through time on market rather than through price, and the next months of inventory settle whether that holds.
Confidence 85 | Hard catalyst | Source: NAR
#7Copper retreated from a record and Freeport fell 7% on tariff ambiguity
C12 · The reshoring trade40.2
top five hold 59.4%
54 other ETFs hold 40.6%
C14 · The trade-war tax39.3
top five hold 99.5%
13 other ETFs hold 0.5%
Copper retreated from the record it set earlier in the week and the largest listed producer fell sharply, after Washington left the scope and timing of refined copper duties undecided. The reshoring trade sits fourteenth on the board in the middle band, its capital more evenly spread than most narratives here, and its proxy traded close to twice as heavily. A metals move driven by duty design rather than by mine supply attaches the narrative to a policy calendar nobody has published, and the published product scope settles it.
Confidence 78 | Hard catalyst | Source: LME/Reuters
#8Nasdaq put $100m into Kraken's parent to build tokenized equity rails
C9 · Onchain infrastructure41.5
top five hold 76.5%
20 other ETFs hold 23.5%
C8 · Crypto conviction47.8
top five hold 82.8%
82 other ETFs hold 17.2%
Nasdaq's venture arm invested $100m in Kraken's parent to build tokenized versions of listed shares, with the first products targeted for 2027. Onchain infrastructure sits thirteenth on the board in the middle band, the thinnest exposure behind any card here, and its proxy traded far lighter. An exchange operator putting settlement rails on chain moves the story from crypto-native venues to the clearing system itself, and the regulatory treatment of share rights settles how far it goes.
Confidence 82 | Hard catalyst | Source: Nasdaq/CoinDesk
The backdrop
The S&P 500 down 0.58% to 7,591.70, the Dow down 0.60% to 52,064.10 and the Nasdaq down 0.65% to 26,081.72, a fourth consecutive losing sessionPure narrative flow (C16)
The S&P 500 more than 2.5% below its August 13 recordPure narrative flow (C16)
The 10-year Treasury at 4.93%, its highest since October 2023, with fed funds futures near 70% for a 25 basis point increase on September 16The rate regime (C5)The credit signal (C7)
Brent settled at $107.63, up 6.34%, and the national average diesel price at a record $5.98 a gallonGeopolitical supply (C11)Hard asset flight (C6)
Gold near $4,471 an ounce and bitcoin near $78,300, a seventh consecutive session below $80,000Hard asset flight (C6)Crypto conviction (C8)
NAI League Table · W36 · all 22 clusters
| # | C | Narrative | Covers | Top ETFs | Level | NAI | Attention | Coverage |
|---|
| 01 | C5 | The rate regime | Fed communications, yields | BND SGOV AGG TLT | | 58.3 | HOT | |
| 02 | C2 | The productivity handoff | Enterprise workflow margin | CIBR IGV FDN SKYY | | 56.6 | HOT | |
| 03 | C1 | The AI compute core | Memory and compute | VGT XLK SMH SOXX | | 54.6 | HOT | |
| 04 | C16 | Pure narrative flow | The crowd as signal | ARKK IBUY BUZZ MILN | | 51.2 | HOT | |
85th percentile4 narratives HOT |
| 05 | C6 | Hard asset flight | Dollar weakness, distrust | GLD IAU SLV GLDM | | 50.4 | WARM | |
| 06 | C11 | Geopolitical supply | Hormuz, OPEC, crude | XLE AMLP VDE XOP | | 50.0 | WARM | |
| 07 | C21 | The orbital economy | Launch, satellites, orbit | NASA UFOX UFO ORBX | | 49.6 | WARM | |
| 08 | C10 | The power constraint | Grid and nuclear | XLU GRID VPU URA | | 48.6 | WARM | |
| 09 | C8 | Crypto conviction | Bitcoin, regulation, adoption | IBIT FBTC GBTC ETHA | | 47.8 | WARM | |
| 10 | C19 | The defense trade | Deterrence and rearmament | XLI ITA VIS PPA | | 47.0 | WARM | |
| 11 | C22 | The quantum frontier | Beyond silicon, pre-revenue | QTUM WQTM CQTM QTUP | | 43.4 | WARM | |
| 12 | C18 | The refinancing cycle | Real estate refinancing | VNQ SCHH XLRE USRT | | 41.7 | WARM | |
| 13 | C9 | Onchain infrastructure | Mining meets compute | BSOL LEGR GSOL BHYP | | 41.5 | WARM | |
| 14 | C12 | The reshoring trade | Critical materials, fabrication | PAVE IGF XLB COPX | | 40.2 | WARM | |
| 15 | C17 | The income overlay | Covered calls, dividends | VIG SCHD VYM JEPI | | 39.8 | WARM | |
| 16 | C4 | The biology trade | FDA decisions, CRISPR | XLV VHT XBI IBB | | 39.6 | WARM | |
| 17 | C14 | The trade-war tax | Tariffs as cost | XLY AIRR VCR IYC | | 39.3 | WARM | |
| 18 | C15 | The fear layer | Options flow, hedges | DBMF CTA SVOL SBAR | | 38.7 | WARM | |
| 19 | C13 | Dollar displacement | US exceptionalism repricing | VEA IEFA VXUS IEMG | | 37.2 | WARM | |
15th percentile3 narratives QUIET |
| 20 | C7 | The credit signal | Spreads and defaults | XLF VCIT LQD VCSH | | 35.6 | QUIET | |
| 21 | C3 | Physical AI layer | Production lines, logistics | BOTZ ROBO ARKQ ROBT | | 34.4 | QUIET | |
| 22 | C20 | The values trade | ESG and anti-ESG | ESGU ESGV ESGD DSI | | 23.1 | QUIET | |
Direction is retired, so no NAI/turnover divergence flags are shown. The turnover measurements underneath are unaffected and are reported on the narrative cards as trading-activity observations with no direction attached.
Narrative signal · W36
HOLDER CHANGEThe productivity handoff · CIBR replaced IGV at the top of capital Share of Narrative The largest investable expression of The productivity handoff is now a cyber-security ETF at 30.5%, narrowly ahead of the broad software product it displaced at 29.8%. Between them the top three hold 70.5% across 73 ETFs. An allocator sizing the second-loudest narrative on the board is therefore buying security spending rather than software licensing, and the two carry different customers and different budget cycles. An issuer building product here is entering a shelf where two incumbents already hold most of the money.