Board/The rate regime/IVOL

IVOL

Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF

Simplify · $237.1m in assets, October 8, 2026

An actively managed ETF: holds inflation-protected Treasury bonds and buys options tied to the shape of the US interest rate curve, built to gain if short-term rates fall or long-term rates rise.

IVOL, the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF, is a $237 million ETF whose main story is the rate regime. Over the past year it returned −9.4%, against +16.8% for broad US ETFs. Figures to October 2, 2026; past performance, not a recommendation.

IVOL · the ETFFRI OCT 2Market price total return
−1.7% a yearTotal return since launch, May 2019
−9.4%Last 12 months
−9.1%Year to date
11.9%Volatility since launch

The narrative it carries

Its main narrative, at 0.8 of its exposure.

The rate regime →

Bonds, cash and Treasuries: the interest rates every other asset is priced against.

The rate regime · the narrative this week
57.8HOT level, 3 of 22
last four weeks
424ETFs carry it
27.8%held by the top five
BNDlargest holder, 7.6%
$1,607 bncapital, 2nd of 22

The band is where this narrative’s level sits among the 22 this week. QUIET means less talked about, not falling.

Who owns the capital
BND 7.6%SGOV 7.5%AGG 6.3%BIL 3.3%TLT 3.1%419 other ETFs 72.2%27.8%top five
#ETFSHAREASSETS1 YEARCOST
1BND7.6%$161.78bn−2.1%0.03%
2SGOV7.5%$112.26bn+3.8%0.09%
3AGG6.3%$135.65bn−2.2%0.03%
4BIL3.3%$49.79bn+3.7%0.14%
5TLT3.1%$46.23bn−9.5%0.15%
419 other ETFs72.2%
IVOL: 0.0%

Share is each ETF’s slice of the capital carrying this narrative. 1 year is market price total return; cost is the expense ratio. See all 424 ETFs on the narrative page →

Also carries: The fear layer →

Hedges, buffered ETFs, volatility and trend strategies: the products built around market falls.

Exposure 0.2 · level 42.3 WARM, 18th of 22 · IVOL holds 0.1% of its capital

FRI OCT 2MARKET PRICE TOTAL RETURN

1M3MYTD1Y3Y*5Y*
IVOL−0.1%−1.5%−9.1%−9.4%−2.9%−6.2%
The rate regimeits narrative−1.6%−2.2%−1.2%−0.6%+4.3%+0.5%
The marketbroad US ETFs+0.8%+2.6%+14.6%+16.8%+22.9%+12.9%

1M, 3M, 1Y, 3Y, 5Y: one month to five years. YTD: year to date. * A year, annualised. A dash means the ETF has not traded for the whole period. Since it started trading on May 14, 2019: −1.7% a year.

$10,000 invested May 31, 2019

IVOL $8,610The rate regime $11,187The market $30,892
$0$10,000$20,000$30,000$40,000May 2019May 2021May 2023May 2025$0$10,000$20,000$30,000$40,000May 2019May 2023

Year by year

IVOLThe rate regimeThe market
-20%-10%0%10%20%30%IVOL 2020: +14.6%Narrative 2020: +6.8%The market 2020: +21.4%2020IVOL 2021: -0.3%Narrative 2021: -1.0%The market 2021: +27.1%2021IVOL 2022: -12.7%Narrative 2022: -9.4%The market 2022: -19.8%2022IVOL 2023: -5.2%Narrative 2023: +5.4%The market 2023: +27.9%2023IVOL 2024: -11.1%Narrative 2024: +2.6%The market 2024: +23.1%2024IVOL 2025: +12.0%Narrative 2025: +6.2%The market 2025: +16.8%2025IVOL YTD: -9.1%Narrative YTD: -1.2%The market YTD: +14.6%YTD-20%-10%0%10%20%30%IVOL 2020: +14.6%Narrative 2020: +6.8%The market 2020: +21.4%2020IVOL 2021: -0.3%Narrative 2021: -1.0%The market 2021: +27.1%2021IVOL 2022: -12.7%Narrative 2022: -9.4%The market 2022: -19.8%2022IVOL 2023: -5.2%Narrative 2023: +5.4%The market 2023: +27.9%2023IVOL 2024: -11.1%Narrative 2024: +2.6%The market 2024: +23.1%2024IVOL 2025: +12.0%Narrative 2025: +6.2%The market 2025: +16.8%2025IVOL YTD: -9.1%Narrative YTD: -1.2%The market YTD: +14.6%YTD

Total return in each calendar year; this year is year to date. A year appears only if IVOL traded for all of it.

Total return on the market price, with each distribution reinvested on its ex-date. Not the NAV return the issuer publishes; the two differ when the ETF trades above or below the value of its holdings. The narrative is the asset-weighted return of the unlevered ETFs that carry it. The market is the asset-weighted return of broad US index ETFs. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Common questions

What story is IVOL selling?

IVOL’s main story is the rate regime, which covers bonds, cash and Treasuries: the interest rates every other asset is priced against. Its second is the fear layer.

Which ETFs compete with IVOL?

The ETFs whose weekly returns move most like IVOL’s over the past 3 years are TUA (0.72), UTWO (0.72) and SHY (0.72).

How has IVOL performed against its story?

Over the past year IVOL returned −9.4%, the ETFs carrying the rate regime −0.6% and broad US ETFs +16.8%, to October 2, 2026. Its weekly returns have a correlation of 0.37 with the story. Past performance only.

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Narrative figures are from the weekly board. Performance is market price total return as of October 2, 2026. Assets are StoryVector’s weekly figure. Classification and measurement. Not investment advice. How the measurement works →