Research/Monthly review
The Narrative Review: October 2026
Narrative ETFs fell 0.9% in October, about the same as SPY. Underneath, attacks on Gulf shipping lifted geopolitical supply, the energy narrative, 9.9%, and XLE, the largest energy ETF, 13.9%. The AI compute core fell 10.4% as the bill for AI came due, and SMH, the largest chip ETF, 14.2%.
The month in one number
| October | Year to date | |
|---|---|---|
| Narrative ETFs | −0.9% | +7.9% |
| SPY, US stocks | −0.9% | +11.7% |
| AGG, US bonds | +2.3% | −0.6% |
This year: narrative ETFs against stocks and bonds
Total return, rebased to 100 at the end of 2025. Weekly, to October 30, 2026.
Narrative ETFs fell 0.9% in October, about the same as US stocks, while bonds rose. This year they are up 7.9%, behind SPY's 11.7% and well ahead of bonds.
What we measure: 3,397 narrative ETFs, $8.0tn in assets, each weighted by its assets. Leveraged and inverse funds are left out. Broad-market funds such as SPY and QQQ, 853 with $8.1tn, sit in our beta book and are not in this review.
Narratives
Nine of the 22 narratives rose, led by geopolitical supply, the biology trade and the refinancing cycle. Seven fell more than 8%, most at the speculative end of the map: AI compute, both crypto narratives, space, quantum and pure narrative flow, plus hard asset flight as gold slipped.
October return by narrative
Total return, each ETF weighted by its assets.
| Narrative | October | Worst fall | Year to date | Assets | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitical supply 85 ETFs | +9.9% | −1.2% | +44.8% | $129bn | 1.6% |
| The biology trade 70 ETFs | +6.6% | −1.6% | +21.8% | $128bn | 1.6% |
| The refinancing cycle 57 ETFs | +4.4% | −1.4% | +9.0% | $89bn | 1.1% |
| The trade-war tax 21 ETFs | +4.0% | −2.3% | −2.5% | $38bn | 0.5% |
| The income overlay 654 ETFs | +4.0% | −0.5% | +12.2% | $1.2tn | 14.4% |
| The rate regime 411 ETFs Best month since February 2025 | +1.9% | −0.2% | +0.4% | $1.5tn | 19.1% |
| The credit signal 447 ETFs Best month since June 2025 | +1.7% | −0.3% | +0.7% | $868bn | 10.8% |
| The defense trade 42 ETFs | +0.8% | −3.5% | +3.8% | $77bn | 1.0% |
| The power constraint 52 ETFs | +0.4% | −5.2% | −0.3% | $67bn | 0.8% |
| The reshoring trade 61 ETFs | −0.3% | −4.5% | +7.2% | $72bn | 0.9% |
| The fear layer 584 ETFs | −0.4% | −1.4% | +8.2% | $121bn | 1.5% |
| The values trade 158 ETFs | −1.5% | −3.3% | +10.4% | $145bn | 1.8% |
| The productivity handoff 79 ETFs | −2.7% | −8.3% | +20.4% | $60bn | 0.7% |
| Dollar displacement 602 ETFs | −2.8% | −3.9% | +10.6% | $2.4tn | 30.0% |
| Physical AI layer 36 ETFs | −7.7% | −10.7% | −3.5% | $8bn | 0.1% |
| Hard asset flight 86 ETFs | −8.1% | −9.0% | −8.7% | $374bn | 4.7% |
| Pure narrative flow 23 ETFs | −8.7% | −12.0% | +3.3% | $5bn | 0.1% |
| The orbital economy 19 ETFs | −9.6% | −15.9% | −1.3% | $2bn | <0.1% |
| Crypto conviction 127 ETFs | −9.8% | −11.9% | −14.5% | $128bn | 1.6% |
| The AI compute core 174 ETFs | −10.4% | −13.1% | +24.7% | $613bn | 7.6% |
| The quantum frontier 8 ETFs | −12.2% | −15.3% | +21.8% | $4bn | 0.1% |
| Onchain infrastructure 33 ETFs | −15.8% | −17.6% | −19.1% | $4bn | <0.1% |
Worst fall: the deepest drop from a high during the month. Assets: frozen month-end assets of the narrative's ETFs, counted by their share in it; share of all 3,397 narrative ETFs, $8.0tn. SPY's worst fall in October: −3.0%.
Four narratives hold three quarters of the money: dollar displacement, the rate regime, the income overlay and the credit signal. The AI compute core, among the loudest narratives, holds 7.6%. Within the month, onchain infrastructure fell 17.6% from its high and the AI compute core 13.1%; SPY's worst fall was 3.0%.
Categories
Inside the narratives, the spread was wider. Broad energy ETFs rose 13.7% and utilities 9.9%; memory, photonics, Solana and crypto company ETFs each fell about 20%.
| Broad energy Geopolitical supply · 20 ETFs · largest XLE, VDE, IXC | +13.7% |
| Oil and gas futures Geopolitical supply · 9 ETFs · largest USO, BNO, UNG | +11.6% |
| Producers, services and refiners Geopolitical supply · 14 ETFs · largest XOP, OIH, FTXN | +11.6% |
| Utilities The power constraint · 11 ETFs · largest XLU, VPU, FUTY | +9.9% |
| Broad health care The biology trade · 18 ETFs · largest XLV, VHT, IYH | +9.1% |
| Photonics and optical interconnect The AI compute core · 6 ETFs · largest EUV, LAZR, LYTE | −22.1% |
| Crypto companies Crypto conviction · 13 ETFs · largest BLOK, BITQ, DAPP | −20.9% |
| Memory The AI compute core · 7 ETFs · largest DRAM, DISK, KMEM | −20.5% |
| Solana Onchain infrastructure · 9 ETFs · largest BSOL, FSOL, SOLZ | −19.2% |
| Silver Hard asset flight · 4 ETFs · largest SLV, SIVR, KSLV | −18.2% |
Biggest moves among large ETFs
Among ETFs with $1bn or more, energy funds took the top five places, led by USO, up 15.9%. The bottom five were AI chips, rare earths and Solana: REMX and PSI fell 22.2%, and DRAM, the $21bn memory ETF, 20.5%. Defensive funds held up: consumer staples ETFs XLP and VDC rose about 11%.
ETFs with $1bn or more in assets at month end, leveraged and inverse funds left out. Total return at market price.
Loud versus return
Across October, the three loudest narratives, crypto conviction, the productivity handoff and onchain infrastructure, fell 9.4% on average. The three quietest, the credit signal, the reshoring trade and the values trade, were flat, at −0.1% on average.
Attention against return, by narrative
Across: average attention across October, 0 to 100. Up: October return. Bubble size: assets. Amber: the three loudest; white: the three quietest.
Talked about versus traded
Crypto conviction was the most talked-about narrative across October, yet trading in its ETFs fell 19% from September, and in onchain infrastructure 27%. AI went the other way: trading in AI compute ETFs rose 26% as they fell 10.4%. Geopolitical supply rose 9.9% on trading that fell 10%.
Attention against trading, by narrative
Across: how much each narrative was discussed, averaged over the scored weeks of the month, 0 to 100. Up: dollar trading in its ETFs per day, against the month before. Narratives without a publishable score are left out. Hover or tap a dot for detail.
Trading counts buyers and sellers alike, so it shows where investors were active, not whether money came in or went out. Net flows replace it once we measure them.
What moved them
Energy. Attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz ran through the month. Brent settled at $116.72 on October 26, its highest since April, as energy shares hit a record. XLE rose 13.9% and broad energy ETFs 13.7%.
AI compute. Chip stocks led the Nasdaq's worst day since June on October 23, on worries about how AI is financed. Meta launched a $35bn stock sale, and Alphabet had its worst day on record on October 30. SMH fell 14.2% and DRAM, the memory ETF, 20.5%.
Crypto. IBIT, the largest bitcoin ETF, fell 8.4%, ETHA 16.5% and the Solana ETF BSOL 19.2%. Robinhood said its crypto revenue halved in the quarter.
Defensives. Consumer staples and dividend funds rose, XLP by 10.9% and HDV by 11.4%, lifting the income overlay 4.0%.
Rates and credit. A month after their worst since 2022, the rate regime had its best month since February 2025 and the credit signal its best since June 2025. TLT rose 5.6%. The Fed held on October 29, with two officials voting to raise rates.
Launches and closures
117 ETFs first traded in October, 81 of them in a narrative. International, bond and income funds led. Ten were AI compute funds.
| Narrative | Launches |
|---|---|
| Dollar displacement | 15 |
| The credit signal | 13 |
| The rate regime | 13 |
| The income overlay | 12 |
| The AI compute core | 10 |
| The fear layer | 7 |
25 ETFs in our book stopped trading in October.
Notes and method. Narrative ETFs: unleveraged ETFs our taxonomy places in one or more of the 22 narratives by their holdings. Most ETFs sit in one narrative; an ETF with a secondary exposure counts in each of its narratives by its share there, in returns and in assets, so no dollar is counted twice. Returns are total returns at market price, each ETF weighted by its assets. Averages across several narratives are simple averages. SPY stands for US stocks and AGG for US bonds. Leveraged and inverse ETFs are left out. Fund lists and asset sizes are frozen at each month end, and a published month is never restated. Categories need at least three ETFs with prices for the month. A month marked best or worst since a date is compared with every month since our data began, shown when the gap is a year or more. Launches are funds that first traded in the month in our price data; closures are funds in our book whose trading stopped in the month. Attention is the average of the scored weeks of the month, shown only where publishable, and never compared across a change in how the score is built. Trading is price times shares traded, per trading day. Narrative news from the StoryVector wire. Data at the close on October 30, 2026.