Pre-Market Narrative Wire

Eight things the Tuesday session has to price

For session: Tue Oct 13, 2026

The board, all 22 narratives: 3 HOT, 16 WARM, 3 QUIETOpen the board →

Lead story: Geopolitical supply

25QUIET below 41.4HOT from 57.460

Tue Oct 13At a glance · 8 storiesMonday = each narrative’s ETFs on the last session, weighted by capital

#StoryNarrativeMondayMonth · year

#1Iran's Guard claimed three supertanker strikes in two daysGeopolitical supply+0.98%−2.4% · +38.5%#2Houthi fire reached Dammam's airport as Riyadh's stayed shutThe defense trade−0.26%−2.9% · +4.1%#3Russia hit Ukrainian power and gas sites after Trump announced an energy truceGeopolitical supply+0.98%−2.4% · +38.5%#4China's CXMT advanced a denser DRAM design and memory stocks fellThe AI compute core−1.51%+4.8% · +45.4%#5The EU adopted its largest Russia sanctions list, aimed at missile supply chainsThe defense trade−0.26%−2.9% · +4.1%#6IonQ agreed to buy Elisity for up to $1.3bn in stock and its shares fellThe quantum frontier−2.41%+2.7% · +38.4%#7Leverage Shares is closing 13 single-stock 2X ETFs after October 19The reshoring trade−0.23%−4.8% · +9.7%#8USCF is liquidating five funds between October 27 and December 11Geopolitical supply+0.98%−2.4% · +38.5%

Iran's Guard claimed three supertanker strikes in two days

Iran's Revolutionary Guard said on Monday it struck three supertankers over two days, after the tankers Valthera and Angola Prosperity were hit leaving the strait and two seafarers went missing from a tanker struck off Oman. Geopolitical supply sits sixth on the board with its proxy trading heavier than a week ago. Brent at a two-week high shows passage being repriced, and Tehran's answer to the US proposal settles how far.

Confidence 76 | Hard catalyst | Seatrade Maritime ↗

Geopolitical supply →56.9WARMlevel

+0.98%Monday
1st of 22

−2.4%1 month · US +2.0%+38.5%this year · US +15.7%

XLE 33.4%largest holder
top five 63.8%

0.36%cost to own, weighted
XLE 0.08%

Houthi fire reached Dammam's airport as Riyadh's stayed shut

Saudi Arabia extended the closure of Riyadh's main airport on Monday and intercepted another ballistic missile over the capital, a day after the US embassy reported an attack on Dammam's airport in the oil-producing east. The defense trade sits twelfth on the board, its capital led by one broad industrial product, with its proxy trading lighter than a week ago. Attacks reaching the Eastern Province move the risk toward energy assets, and the Saudi response settles whether Washington joins.

Confidence 80 | Hard catalyst | CBS News ↗

The defense trade →48.6WARMlevel

−0.26%Monday
12th of 22

−2.9%1 month · US +2.0%+4.1%this year · US +15.7%

XLI 39.1%largest holder
top five 82.4%

0.26%cost to own, weighted
XLI 0.08%

Russia hit Ukrainian power and gas sites after Trump announced an energy truce

Russia struck a power plant in Kharkiv and Naftogaz gas production sites overnight into Monday, after President Trump said on Sunday that Moscow and Kyiv had agreed to stop targeting energy infrastructure, which neither side has confirmed. Geopolitical supply sits sixth on the board with its proxy trading heavier than a week ago. A truce that fails on its first night leaves refinery strikes on both sides in play, and the terms Washington publishes settle whether it binds.

Confidence 76 | Hard catalyst | Al Jazeera ↗

Geopolitical supply · same narrative as #1, figures above →

China's CXMT advanced a denser DRAM design and memory stocks fell

ChangXin Memory said at a Shanghai industry event that it had made key progress on a denser memory cell structure and plans a server product on it by the end of 2026, and Micron, SK Hynix and Sandisk fell sharply on Monday. The AI compute core sits joint fourth on the board with crypto conviction, its trading little changed from a week ago. A Chinese supplier on the architecture its rivals pursue tests memory pricing power, and customer qualification settles it.

Confidence 80 | Hard catalyst | Seoul Economic Daily ↗

The AI compute core →57.0WARMlevel

−1.51%Monday
17th of 22

+4.8%1 month · US +2.0%+45.4%this year · US +15.7%

VGT 23.9%largest holder
top five 68.6%

0.25%cost to own, weighted
VGT 0.09%

The EU adopted its largest Russia sanctions list, aimed at missile supply chains

EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg on Monday adopted almost 1,600 new listings against Russia's military-industrial complex, which the bloc's foreign policy chief called the largest expansion since the war began, more than half of them tied to ballistic missile production. The defense trade sits twelfth on the board, its capital led by one broad industrial product. Measures aimed at Russian missile output keep European rearmament in view, and their reach into third-country suppliers settles how much they bind.

Confidence 72 | Hard catalyst | Kyiv Independent ↗

The defense trade · same narrative as #2, figures above →

IonQ agreed to buy Elisity for up to $1.3bn in stock and its shares fell

IonQ agreed on Monday to buy Elisity, a private network security company, in an all-stock deal worth up to $1.3bn including up to $150m tied to performance, and its shares fell with D-Wave and Rigetti also lower. The quantum frontier sits eighth on the board, nearly all its capital in one fund, with its proxy trading lighter than a week ago. Paying in stock for revenue outside quantum hardware moves the narrative's best-known name toward software, and the final share count settles the dilution.

Confidence 78 | Hard catalyst | The Quantum Insider ↗

The quantum frontier →53.4WARMlevel

−2.41%Monday
22nd of 22

+2.7%1 month · US +2.0%+38.4%this year · US +15.7%

QTUM 92.7%largest holder
top five 99.9%

0.41%cost to own, weighted
QTUM 0.40%

From the ETF business

Leverage Shares is closing 13 single-stock 2X ETFs after October 19

The Themes ETF Trust board decided to liquidate 13 Leverage Shares 2X single-stock ETFs for failing to attract sufficient assets, announced October 9, with no creations after October 16 and trading ending October 19. The reshoring trade sits near the foot of the board, its capital spread across broad infrastructure and materials products. Leveraged wrappers on materials and crypto names failing to gather assets marks where single-stock demand stops, and the issuer's remaining range shows whether the cut deepens.

Confidence 80 | Hard catalyst | Themes ETFs via PR Newswire ↗

The reshoring trade →40.5QUIETlevel

−0.23%Monday
10th of 22

−4.8%1 month · US +2.0%+9.7%this year · US +15.7%

PAVE 18.5%largest holder
top five 59.1%

0.42%cost to own, weighted
PAVE 0.47%

From the ETF business

USCF is liquidating five funds between October 27 and December 11

USCF's trust board voted to liquidate ZSB, WTIB, USE, USG and UDI, announced October 9, with ZSB first on or about October 27 and UDI last on or about December 11. Geopolitical supply sits sixth on the board, a third of its capital in one broad energy product. An issuer built on a single oil product closing its strategy funds while crude stays elevated narrows its range to the commodity core, and the staged dates show how quickly.

Confidence 80 | Hard catalyst | USCF via PR Newswire ↗

Geopolitical supply · same narrative as #1, figures above →

Tue Oct 132 of 3 events this session touch the rate regime

rate regimeFed communications, yields5 of 7

credit signalSpreads and defaults2 of 7

trade-war taxTariffs as cost2 of 7

biology tradeFDA decisions, CRISPR1 of 7

AI compute coreMemory and compute1 of 7

This session

Before the openJPMorgan, Goldman, Citi, Wells Fargo report; consensus EPS $5.93, $13.04, $2.65, $1.85

Before the openUnitedHealth and Johnson & Johnson report; consensus EPS $4.12 and $2.51

All dayTreasury cash market reopens after the Columbus Day closealso: refinancing cycle

Ahead

September CPI, Wednesday October 14, consensus 0.6% m/m, core 0.2%

ASML, BofA, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley report Wednesday; Beige Book 14:00

Retail sales and PPI Thursday October 15, consensus 0.3% and 0.5% m/m

Governor Cook's closed White House hearing, Thursday November 5

main narrative for the eventalso touchesColor is the narrative's band this week: HOT · WARM · QUIETAll times ET

The backdrop

$106

Brent, close

Brent near $106 at the close, its highest in two weeks, with WTI near $93

Geopolitical supplyHard asset flight

5.24%

10-year Treasury

The 10-year Treasury at 5.24% from Friday's close; cash trading resumes Tuesday after Columbus Day

The rate regimeThe refinancing cycle

7,807.24

S&P 500 close

The S&P 500 closed at 7,807.24, down 0.06%, as energy rose and technology fell

The productivity handoffThe AI compute core

1.1155

Euro, dollars

The euro at a 2026 low against the dollar, near 1.1155 late in the session

Dollar displacement

$4,170

Gold, spot

Gold near $4,170 an ounce late in the session, down on the day

Hard asset flight

$83,000

Bitcoin

Bitcoin near $83,000 late in the session, down under 1% on the day

Crypto conviction

Where issuers are building

12 of last week’s 66 new ETFs sit on the AI compute core

Every new US ETF from the intake of Monday Oct 12, by the narrative it belongs to and by issuer.

Narrative	TradrOct 9	Tuttle CapitalOct 8	DefianceOct 9	TemaOct 7	14 othersOct 2–9	ETFs
The AI compute core	2	6	3	1	·	12
The orbital economy	4	·	·	·	·	4
Dollar displacement	·	·	1	·	2	3
The quantum frontier	3	·	·	·	·	3
The fear layer	·	·	·	·	2	2
The income overlay	·	·	·	·	2	2
The productivity handoff	2	·	·	·	·	2
Physical AI layer	·	1	1	·	·	2
The rate regime	·	·	·	·	2	2
The power constraint	1	·	·	·	·	1
The biology trade	·	1	·	·	·	1
Hard asset flight	·	·	·	·	1	1
Not yet placed	9	7	45	1	5	31
Total	21	15	14	2	14	66

Filed or listedFiled, 2x dailyNot yet placed on a narrative· None

14 others, one ETF each: AllianzIM, Avantis, Dimensional, F/m Investments, HCM, Harbor, Leverage Shares, NYLIM, REX, Rareview, VanEck, VegaShares, Xtrackers, YieldMax.

12 of the 66 sit on the AI compute core, where five ETFs already hold 68.6% of the capital.

2026 has already passed all of 2025’s ETF registration filings

Running total of 485APOS registration filings, 2026 against 2025. 1,224 by Oct 13, against 1,136 in all of 2025. Source: SEC EDGAR. A registration filing is not an ETF: one filing can cover several.

Where the money went

ETFs took $25.42 billion on Friday, 3 times the average day

Net money into and out of US ETFs by asset class. Latest published session: Fri Oct 9.

Asset class	Friday	Against its average day	This year
Equity	$19.93B	4x	$970.55B
Fixed Income	$4.54B	1.7x	$526.91B
Non-Traditional	$1.55B	3.6x	$84.44B
Alternative	$129.8M	2x	$12.72B
Multi-Asset	$69.2M	1x	$12.94B
Currency	$3.5M	2x	$343.6M
Digital Asset	($332.1M)	Out	$3.43B
Commodity	($472.8M)	Out	$8.63B
All eight	$25.42B	3x	$1.62T

All 22 narratives, levels and ownership, on the board →

Sources: attention from six channels, scored for the week to Oct 9 on a fixed 25 to 60 scale; ownership from the holdings of all 4,940 US ETFs; each story from the primary sources cited on its card. Levels are attention, not direction. No price targets, no forecasts, not investment advice. Returns are past and measured, not forecasts. How the measurement works →