Pre-Market Narrative Wire

Eight things the Monday session has to price

For session: Mon Nov 9, 2026

The board, all 22 narratives: 3 HOT, 16 WARM, 3 QUIET

Lead story: rate regime

25QUIET below 43.0HOT from 59.560

Mon Nov 9At a glance · 8 stories

#StoryNarrativeFridayMonthYear

#1Michigan sentiment rose to 51.0 against 48.0 expected as inflation expectations easedThe rate regime−0.04%+1.8%+0.1%#2A seafarer died on a tanker struck off Qatar as Iran claimed two more mine hitsGeopolitical supply+0.09%−4.1%+30.5%#3Treasury cut the MEXC exchange off from US banks over $16bn in alleged illicit flowsOnchain infrastructure−0.26%−20.6%−22.4%#4AST SpaceMobile agreed to buy 36 Firefly engines in a deal worth more than $1.3bnThe orbital economy+6.20%−19.4%−6.6%#5IonQ raised its 2026 revenue outlook to $505m to $515m as backlog reached $1.2bnThe quantum frontier+3.67%−21.8%+12.6%#6Moderna returned to profit and raised its 2026 revenue growth outlookThe biology trade+0.38%+7.4%+20.9%#7Microchip guided December-quarter revenue below consensus after a small beatThe AI compute core+2.08%−20.3%+14.4%#8Axon cut its 2026 revenue outlook and agreed to invest $1.2bn more in SkydioThe defense trade+0.88%−4.0%+0.7%

Michigan sentiment rose to 51.0 against 48.0 expected as inflation expectations eased

The University of Michigan's preliminary November index rose to 51.0 from 48.0 on Friday against a forecast of no change, and year-ahead inflation expectations fell by 0.4 point. The rate regime, sixth on attention, had ETFs that were little changed in price on the day, seventeenth of 22. Households expecting less inflation in a week of strong hiring give the case against a December hike its first support from demand, which Tuesday's consumer price report can confirm or undo.

Confidence 80 | Hard catalyst | Verified Investing ↗

The rate regime →56.8WARMattention, week to Nov 6

−0.04%Friday
16th of 22

+1.8%1 month · US −5.9%+0.1%this year · US +8.9%

BND 7.5%largest holder
top five 27.6%

0.12%cost to own, weighted
BND 0.03%

A seafarer died on a tanker struck off Qatar as Iran claimed two more mine hits

Velos Tankers said on Friday a seafarer on the Velos Sapphire died after the tanker was struck north of Qatar, and UKMTO counted 11 ships attacked around the strait in the week, 3 of them sunk. Geopolitical supply, seventh on attention, saw its ETFs barely move in price, fifteenth of 22. A death aboard turns the attacks from a cargo risk into a crew risk for insurers, and Iran's navy said on Saturday another tanker hit a mine, leaving the route contested while mediators press both sides.

Confidence 72 | Hard catalyst | gCaptain via Reuters ↗

Geopolitical supply →56.4WARMattention, week to Nov 6

+0.09%Friday
15th of 22

−4.1%1 month · US −5.9%+30.5%this year · US +8.9%

XLE 34.0%largest holder
top five 62.7%

0.40%cost to own, weighted
XLE 0.08%

Treasury cut the MEXC exchange off from US banks over $16bn in alleged illicit flows

FinCEN on Friday named the offshore exchange MEXC a primary money laundering concern, barring US institutions from moving funds to or from it over at least $16bn of alleged illicit flows since 2021. Onchain infrastructure, eighth on attention, had ETFs that slipped in price on the day, twentieth of 22. Cutting a venue off from dollar rails, rather than sanctioning its users, places the cost on offshore exchanges' access to banks, with the 30-day clock waiting on publication in the Federal Register.

Confidence 74 | Hard catalyst | US Treasury ↗

Onchain infrastructure →55.8WARMattention, week to Nov 6

−0.26%Friday
20th of 22

−20.6%1 month · US −5.9%−22.4%this year · US +8.9%

BSOL 17.6%largest holder
top five 59.9%

0.61%cost to own, weighted
BSOL 0.20%

AST SpaceMobile agreed to buy 36 Firefly engines in a deal worth more than $1.3bn

Firefly Aerospace said on Friday that AST SpaceMobile agreed to pay more than $1.3bn in cash and stock over three years for 27 Miranda and 9 Vira engines for its first three heavy-lift rockets, with a license to build them itself. The orbital economy, tenth on attention, posted the strongest price gain of any narrative on Friday. A satellite operator building its own launcher moves launch from a service bought to an asset owned, shifting where the narrative's revenue sits more than its size.

Confidence 80 | Hard catalyst | Firefly Aerospace via Stock Titan ↗

The orbital economy →53.6WARMattention, week to Nov 6

+6.20%Friday
1st of 22

−19.4%1 month · US −5.9%−6.6%this year · US +8.9%

NASA 22.1%largest holder
top five 76.2%

0.63%cost to own, weighted
NASA 0.75%

IonQ raised its 2026 revenue outlook to $505m to $515m as backlog reached $1.2bn

IonQ reported third-quarter revenue of $173.8m after Thursday's close, raised its full-year range to $505m to $515m against about $456m expected, and said remaining performance obligations more than doubled to $1.2bn. The quantum frontier, joint fourteenth on attention with the fear layer, had ETFs posting the second strongest price gain of the 22 on Friday. Contracted backlog at this scale gives a narrative long priced on promise a revenue base to be measured against, which narrows the room between its attention and its reported numbers.

Confidence 78 | Hard catalyst | IonQ ↗

The quantum frontier →50.4WARMattention, week to Nov 6

+3.67%Friday
2nd of 22

−21.8%1 month · US −5.9%+12.6%this year · US +8.9%

QTUM 87.2%largest holder
top five 97.1%

0.41%cost to own, weighted
QTUM 0.40%

Moderna returned to profit and raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook

Moderna reported third-quarter revenue of $1.313bn before Friday's open, with net income of $162m against a loss a year earlier, and lifted its 2026 revenue growth outlook well above its earlier ceiling. The biology trade sits seventeenth on attention, and its ETFs edged up in price, ninth of 22. Guidance raised on newer vaccines rather than pandemic demand gives a narrative whose attention rests mostly on trial readouts a commercial figure to hold against, measured through the winter respiratory season.

Confidence 80 | Hard catalyst | Moderna via Stock Titan ↗

The biology trade →47.9WARMattention, week to Nov 6

+0.38%Friday
10th of 22

+7.4%1 month · US −5.9%+20.9%this year · US +8.9%

XLV 37.6%largest holder
top five 73.4%

0.23%cost to own, weighted
XLV 0.08%

Microchip guided December-quarter revenue below consensus after a small beat

Microchip reported revenue of $1.62bn after Thursday's close, a little above forecasts, but guided to a $1.61bn midpoint for the December quarter against $1.63bn expected. The AI compute core, third on attention, still saw its ETFs rebound strongly in price, fourth of 22, as the larger chipmakers recovered part of Thursday's losses. A softer outlook at a maker of microcontrollers and analog chips reads on industrial and auto demand rather than data centers, keeping the compute question on hyperscaler spending.

Confidence 72 | Hard catalyst | StockStory via FinancialContent ↗

The AI compute core →59.7HOTattention, week to Nov 6

+2.08%Friday
5th of 22

−20.3%1 month · US −5.9%+14.4%this year · US +8.9%

VGT 23.6%largest holder
top five 64.5%

0.24%cost to own, weighted
VGT 0.09%

Axon cut its 2026 revenue outlook and agreed to invest $1.2bn more in Skydio

Axon reported third-quarter revenue of $909m after Thursday's close, cut its full-year range to $3.61bn to $3.63bn after removing about $130m of federal counter-drone deployments, and is investing $1.2bn to raise its stake in drone maker Skydio. The defense trade, joint fourth on attention with the productivity handoff, had ETFs that gained moderately in price, seventh of 22. Deferring federal counter-drone revenue while buying more of a drone maker separates timing from demand, and the reading turns on whether those deployments return.

Confidence 70 | Hard catalyst | Axon via PR Newswire ↗

The defense trade →59.4WARMattention, week to Nov 6

+0.88%Friday
7th of 22

−4.0%1 month · US −5.9%+0.7%this year · US +8.9%

XLI 40.6%largest holder
top five 82.8%

0.25%cost to own, weighted
XLI 0.08%

Mon Nov 94 of 8 events this session touch the rate regime

rate regimeFed communications, yields8 of 13

refinancing cycleReal estate refinancing3 of 13

power constraintGrid and nuclear1 of 13

hard asset flightDollar weakness, distrust1 of 13

orbital economyLaunch, satellites, orbit1 of 13

geopolitical supplyHormuz, OPEC, crude1 of 13

AI compute coreMemory and compute1 of 13

This session

Before the openConstellation Energy and NRG Energy report

Before the openBarrick Mining reports

8:40 a.m.Fed Governor Bowman speaks

10 a.m.Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks

12:15 p.m.Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks

1 p.m.Treasury sells $58bn 3-year notes

After the closeRocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile report

After the closeOccidental Petroleum reports

Ahead

October CPI Tuesday, November 10, 08:30 ETalso: trade-war tax

Treasury sells $42bn 10-year notes Tuesday, November 10

Applied Materials and Cisco report Thursday, November 12

Treasury sells $25bn 30-year bonds Thursday, November 12

SEC cross-trading proposal for funds: comments close December 14 ISSUER

main narrative for the eventalso touchesColor is the narrative's band this week: HOT · WARM · QUIETAll times ET

The backdrop

4.86%

10-year Treasury

The 10-year Treasury near 4.86% at Friday's close, the 2-year near 4.51% and the 30-year near 5.26%

The rate regimeThe refinancing cycle

$97.79

Brent

Brent near $97.79 a barrel and WTI near $90.37, both slightly lower on Friday

Geopolitical supplyHard asset flight

253

Hormuz closure, days

Hormuz closed, day 253 on Monday

Geopolitical supply

24,579.42

Nasdaq, close

The Nasdaq Composite closed at 24,579.42 and the S&P 500 at 7,376.86, both higher on Friday

The AI compute coreThe productivity handoff

$4,081

Gold

Gold near $4,081 an ounce, lower on Friday

Hard asset flight

$75,943

Bitcoin

Bitcoin near $75,943, little changed on Friday

Crypto conviction

Where issuers are building

2 of the prior week’s 14 new ETFs sit on the income overlay

Every new US ETF from the intake of Monday Nov 2, by the narrative it belongs to and by issuer.

Narrative	Leverage SharesOct 27	EventideOct 29	9 othersOct 22–30	ETFs
The income overlay	·	1	1	2
Geopolitical supply	·	·	1	1
The credit signal	·	·	1	1
Not yet placed	12	1	6	10
Total	3	2	9	14

Filed or listedFiled, 2x dailyNot yet placed on a narrative· None

9 others, one ETF each: Davidson, FINQ, FT Vest, Goldman Sachs, Tema, Teucrium, Tidal, VanEck, VictoryShares.

2 of the 14 sit on the income overlay, where five ETFs already hold 36.6% of the capital.

2026 has already passed all of 2025’s ETF registration filings

Running total of 485APOS registration filings, 2026 against 2025. 1,302 by Nov 6, against 1,136 in all of 2025. Source: SEC EDGAR. A registration filing is not an ETF: one filing can cover several.

Where the money went

ETFs took $7.24 billion on Wednesday, 0.9 times the average day

Net money into and out of US ETFs by asset class. Latest published session: Wed Nov 4.

Asset class	Wednesday	Against its average day	This year
Equity	$7.15B	1.4x	$1,066.67B
Commodity	$179.2M	4.4x	$8.72B
Fixed Income	$143.2M	0.1x	$574.41B
Multi-Asset	$39.4M	0.6x	$13.25B
Alternative	$19.8M	0.3x	$12.89B
Currency	($8.1M)	Out	$364.1M
Non-Traditional	($78.5M)	Out	$107.68B
Digital Asset	($204.6M)	Out	$1.38B
All eight	$7.24B	0.9x	$1.79T

All 22 narratives, levels and ownership, on the board →

Sources: attention from five channels, scored for the week to Nov 6 on a fixed 25 to 60 scale; ownership from the holdings of all 5,057 US ETFs; each story from the primary sources cited on its card. Levels are attention, not direction. No price targets, no forecasts, not investment advice. Returns are past and measured, not forecasts. How the measurement works →